GDP rose just 1.4% - pretty wide miss while inflation holding firm - conflicting data - what does this mean for the Fed?
Jen
Kevin Hanks
Q4 GDP at 1.4% much lower than 2.8% expected - disappointment - markets have to work through what this does to 10-year yield and chances of rate cut
Kevin Hanks
Inflation data shows PCE price index month-over-month up 0.4% (0.1% higher than expected), year-over-year 2.9% (0.1% higher), core PCE year-over-year 3%
Kevin Hanks
Market has drifted lower but off its lows - hesitation on whether to give 60-day-old data real credence
Objectively bad data - GDP miss, PCE misses on month-over-month and year-over-year - but markets not selling off substantially
Jen
US tensions with Iran sending oil prices all over place - Trump decision on strikes in next 10 days - what does this mean for energy market and oil prices near term?
Jen
Kevin Hanks
Crude oil down slightly but back up around $66 - premium risk uncertainty in crude oil market - Trump moved another ship to Middle East - next 10 days key
Kevin Hanks
Crude oil market in terms of supply and demand very favorable for lower prices - significant risk premium in futures
Supreme Court convening - markets focused on decision around tariffs - how important to overall market and geopolitical tensions?
Jen
Kevin Hanks
Two things waiting for: decision on tariffs and Trump's ability to impose tariffs ($293 billion collected), and Lisa Cook decision on firing Fed officials