Asks what's fundamentally different from 2022 Russia invasion playbook.
Romaine Bostick
Bridge Kurana
Labor market fundamentally different: then +500K jobs/month, last 6 months lost jobs. Core inflation then ~6%, now ~2.5%. Consumer surplus ~$2T mostly worked through.
Asks what signals looking for from Fed tomorrow.
Isabelle Lee
Bridge Kurana
Focus on 2026 dot. Could go back to unchanged (no cuts) given Iran and committee makeup; hawkish surprise possible.
Asks if Treasuries can recoup losses if Fed goes expected direction.
Romaine Bostick
Bridge Kurana
Value in long duration bonds if temporary inflation shock, no more fiscal stimulus, Fed doesn't ease. Term premium already in prices.
Asks about emerging markets given Iran/energy prices.
Romaine Bostick
Bridge Kurana
EM local bonds interesting; fundamentals strong: policy rates high, inflation coming down, not spending fiscally, room for cuts. Commodity prices can help some economies.
Asks how exposed US to foreign selling if high energy prices pressure Japan/Korea.
Isabelle Lee
Bridge Kurana
~$28T US assets held abroad. Oil prices in their currencies near 25yr highs. If high oil continues, may need to sell US assets to fund oil balances.