Short-term moves in metals like today are almost always speculation or short-covering. The key risk is that when metals go up, that becomes their own enemy and they end up going back down.

Specifically worried about silver leading rallies, as it's an indicator of excessive speculation and pain to come. Silver is overdue for extreme volatility.

The weaker dollar is leading the move. A weaker dollar is needed to fix the trade balance, which is what's happening.

Cautions that January is a time for new positions that often turn out wrong. Questions if the commodity strength can be sustained, noting the stock market must stay up for industrial commodities to go higher.

Notes the S&P 500 is at its cheapest vs. gold since 2013, implying the stock market is collapsing relative to the ancient store of value.

Geopolitical spikes in oil are often used by traders as a chance to sell. Sees crude oil around $65 as a key level to test a short position and believes the price will be lower by year-end.

Adds that for the midterm elections, the political need is for lower energy, interest rates, and yields, which Trump has the ability to potentially make happen.