They are laser-focused on potential disruptions from Iran's 2 mb/d exports. The increased risk explains the return of a risk premium, but their base case is unchanged: an oversupplied market will see prices trending down, repeating the 2025 template.

In theory, yes, but notes two big 'ifs'. Similar Russian oil tariffs didn't stop exports. Models suggest a 50% drop in Iranian exports (1 mb/d) could lift fair value by $8 after one year, with a larger spike possible from extra risk premium, but this is not their base case.

Explains that the 2025 surplus didn't show up much in OECD pricing centers due to a large rise in oil-on-water from sanctioned producers and others. Expects about a third of their forecast 2.3 mb/d surplus in 2026 to build in OECD.

Distinguishes short-term 'low hanging barrels' that could lift output to 1.1 mb/d by year-end with limited investment, from long-term gains which require major investment and policy clarity. US refineries want this oil.