The economy was weak before the war. The consensus view of broadening growth led by CapEx and a consumption recovery wasn't unfolding.

The Fed is being fooled again, misreading the oil price spike as inflationary rather than a deflationary demand shock.

Powell should have said the Fed stands ready to cushion the employment risk from higher oil prices, not the inflation risk.

AI is starting to bite, evidenced by sharp wage deceleration in the highest income quartile and tech sector layoffs boosting productivity.

If the S&P falls 10-12%, industrials present a buying opportunity as supply shocks argue for US manufacturing reshoring.

The banking sector is attractive due to a regulatory shift to reduce capital requirements and privatize the Fed's balance sheet.

For fixed income, buy the 2-year part of the curve because the Fed will ease later this year; the idea of a hike is ridiculous.