• Treasuries rally after private sector data signals a cooling U.S. labor market, spurring traders to boost bets on a Fed rate cut.
    Tom McKenzie
  • Valerie Titell
    Yesterday, the private ADP weekly data showed the U.S. economy shed on average 11,000 jobs per week, suggesting the labor market remains weak. This has pushed Treasury markets higher as traders foresee increased chances of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.
  • Valerie Titell
    The current expectation priced in by the markets is around a 70% chance of a Fed rate cut, driving the bid for Treasury bonds and pushing yields down.
  • So the softer labor market data is influencing bond markets and Fed expectations?
    Tom McKenzie
  • Valerie Titell
    Yes, absolutely, the weaker job market data is a core driver for the Treasury rally and lower yields in the short term.
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