Precious metals prices have risen very sharply along with copper and aluminum. The stock market is wrestling with news of a DOJ criminal investigation into the Fed, announced Sunday evening.

Predicting the timing, depth, and duration of a recession is very difficult due to numerous variables and no clear historical pattern.

The DOJ investigation into the Fed has severe potential consequences as it undermines perceptions of Fed independence, which undermines the dollar, Treasury market creditworthiness, and global economic growth underpinnings.

Gold is up about 70% from a year ago. Technicians see a measured move target around $5,200. The big driver is investment demand, which will continue because underlying problems have not improved.

Silver prices are also driven by investment demand. A claim of a 60M oz delivery is false. Major Chinese solar panel makers plan to stop using silver within three months, switching to more efficient copper technology.

Metals prices are likely to stay strong and move higher over the course of the year, but after the parabolic move since early December, one must worry about a potential period of short-term profit taking.

Platinum and palladium are at record highs, following gold and silver. One must worry about short-term profit taking even as prices are higher.

Fabricators are building inventories of industrial metals due to worries about supply interruptions from tariffs/trade restrictions and because the US dollar is under renewed pressure.

December CPI was up 0.3% month/month, still elevated. Headline inflation is about 2.7% year/year; core inflation (ex-food/energy) is up 4% month/month and 26% year/year.

Persistently high CPI could confound the Trump administration's desire for lower interest rates. Even some Republicans and the Treasury have criticized undermining the Fed, warning it harms Treasury creditworthiness, the dollar, and the economy at a bad time.