• We've just had from you that the... the discussion in. December and the conclusion of the discussion is not a foregone conclusion. I'd like to just dig into that a little bit more about what sort of arguments were brought up was that any consideration for instance of. the investment we're seeing in AI and some of the generation of household well through rises in. stock prices related to
    Host
  • Jerome Powell
    The AI2. Thank you. You know, wouldn't say that sort of. That's a factor. and everyone's assessment of the economy I wouldn't say it's the driving factor. I don't think for anybody. you know. I guess I would say it this way. Once again, I would just point out that we have. the situation where The risks are to the upside for inflation and to the downside for employment. We have one tool. You can't do both of those. You can't address both of those at once. You've got a very different situation. So... you have some people. people have different forecasts, right? So they'll... they'll... don't feel it, don't feel it. forecast faster or slower progress on one of the other and they also have different levels of risk of version. and you know people. It will be more of verse 2. inflation. overruns and some will be more versed too. under runs of employment. and so you put that together. and as you can see from the SCP and from the public discussion that goes on between the meetings when Yeah, more participants go out and talk. They're very disparate views, and they were reflected in strongly differing views in today's meeting as I pointed out in my remarks. and that's what leaves me to say that. you know that we haven't made a decision. about December, you know, I always say that it's affected. We don't make decisions as advanced, but this is something in addition here. is that it's not to be seen as a foregone conclusion in fact far from it.
  • And I just want to quickly follow up on QT. How much of the... the fund and pressures we've seen in money markets are related to the U.S. Treasury. It's your more short time. so that..
    Host
  • Jerome Powell
    that could be one of the factors split. reality as we've seen, you know, the things that we've seen. higher repo rates and federal funds rate moving up. These are the very things that we look for. We actually have a... a framework for looking at, you know. Boom. the place we're trying to reach will we said. for a long time now is that when we... I feel like we're a little bit, we're a bit above. what we consider a level that's ample. that we would. freeze the size of the balance sheet. Of course, reserves will continue to decline from that point forward as non-reserval abilities. grow. So this happened. Some of it, some things have been happening for some time now showing a... gradual tightening and money market conditions. Really in the last call it three weeks or so. you've seen more significant tightening and I think a clear... assessment that. that we're at that place. The other thing is... in a world where... The balance she's just shrinking at a very, very slow pace now, we've reduced it by half. voice. and so there's not. a lot of benefit. to be. you know, to be holding on for to get the last few dollars because you know, uh... again with the balance sheets the reserves are going to continue to shrink as not reserves grow so You know, there was support on the committee as we thought about it to go ahead with this and announce. effective December 1 that we will be freezing the size of the balance sheet and the December 1 date. gives the markets a little bit of time to adapt.
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