Asks about technical perspective on recent market volatility, specifically referencing unusual volume activity in oil and S&P e-minis before Trump's social media post.
Sam
Nathan Peterson
S&P 500, Dow Jones, and NASDAQ Composite are all below their 200-day simple moving average, indicating technical deterioration and a long-term trend break.
Nathan Peterson
For traders: can be risk-off until cap-weighted indices reclaim 200-day SMA, OR risk-on using equal-weight S&P/Russell 2000 if they stay above their 200-day SMA.
Nathan Peterson
Technical deterioration acknowledged; outcome dependent on news flow after current 5-day window.
Asks about severity of private credit issues, referencing Apollo capping withdrawals, Aries limits, ECB checks, and Moody's downgrades.
Sam
Nathan Peterson
Private credit is a question mark; major players down 40% from highs, similar sell-off pattern to software stocks.
Nathan Peterson
High uncertainty periods lead to valuation resets to the downside; VIX around 25 requires trader adjustment.