Asks if Rick expects a Fed cut on Wednesday.
Scott
Rick Rieder
Expects a 25bps cut, likely a 'hawkish cut', but notes it's not definitive. Believes the market universally expects this.
Asks if the cut *should* be definitive.
Scott
Rick Rieder
Argues it should be definitive. Believes the Fed has room to go and should cut to a 3% funds rate.
Questions the validity of the Fed's upcoming economic outlook given a lack of data due to the government shutdown.
Scott
Rick Rieder
Defends holding the meeting, stating there is enough data on the job market (JOLTS, claims, surveys) to proceed without making a grievous error.
Notes rates have backed up and asks if a hawkish cut could cause rates to continue backing up.
Scott
Rick Rieder
States you could still get some elevation (back up) in interest rates in the short term.
Rick Rieder
Does not think rates are going very far up; ultimately expects rates to come down.
Asks about the impact of rising yields in Japan on global yields, including the US.
Scott
Rick Rieder
Acknowledges Japan's influence on US rates is less profound now for technical/hedging cost reasons.
Rick Rieder
States that backup in rates in Japan, UK, and Europe definitely influences US interest rates.
Rick Rieder
Views European rate backups as an attractive buying opportunity due to currency swap effects.