Everyone started talking about the fact that there's no follow-through on the rally despite a government deal. The market did not react as expected to the shutdown; it was very muted even though we were trading in the dark for a month. After the Fed cut 25 basis points and said a December cut isn't certain, it seemed odd and perhaps political. The market had a nice recovery rally up over 100 points. Regarding tech, despite some selling such as SoftBank unloading Nvidia stake, the commitments by major players like Oracle, Microsoft, Meta, and Google totaling hundreds of billions into AI, data centers, and chips indicate real demand. Individual selling is opinionated noise; the market's reaction is what matters. On upcoming catalysts, the deluge of official economic data is key since it will influence Fed decisions. Palantir's post-earnings stock drop despite stellar results shows market caution and buy-the-rumor sell-the-news behavior. The Fed signaling a possible hold rather than a cut could displease the market, which is positioned for a cut. There's uncertainty in data collection methods which may cause the Fed to wait. Overall, valuations and sector strength, especially in AI-driven names, support cautious optimism despite market volatility.

Mainstream media and investment community often overreact to opinions. The SoftBank CEO who sold Nvidia shares still states the stock is undervalued at current levels. The commitments into AI space and infrastructure by big players are more indicative than individual trading actions.

The economic data is more important because it impacts Fed policy. The Fed’s rhetoric about December not being certain on a cut was new and affected positioning. The market is complex now with many new retail investors and traders. Reaction to earnings and news is driven by expectations of Fed moves rather than traditional patterns.

The market likely would not like it since it's priced for cuts. The Fed and market sometimes overplay their hands. Last year's delayed cut led to a sharp selloff after the actual cut. There's a need for a shake-up. Data collection remains archaic and slow, which might affect Fed comfort. Valuations and sector strength, especially among AI-related stocks, remain supportive despite market chatter.