The Federal Reserve has already set up the market for interest rates to move to 3% by the end of the year. The market seems mostly willing to look past concerns about Fed legalities because we've largely set up the market to be prepared for a series of rate cuts this year.

It should be very related. The big risk to the outlook is that if the market starts to get a sense Fed independence is going away, you'll see a rise in inflation expectations. If longer rates start to go up, valuations need to adjust. The market is already set up for rates to go lower.

We've seen people come from administrations to run the Fed, not directly. We'll have to see how Hassett acts in that role. Again, the good news is rates are already expected to go lower. What I'm telling investors is watch inflation expectations closely.

The three year break evens were moving lower in an environment where the economy was likely to pick up - all a good sign. They moved higher probably in the 240 range on Monday. If that starts to break out, that's a problem. If that stays in that two and a quarter, two and a half range, then we're in a good spot for markets.

In some cases, the answer might actually be what Paul Volcker did, which was also politically unpopular. 2008 is an example of something that was politically unpopular in terms of 2020 as well. When there are acute moments, when the going gets tough, they're going to be decisions that typically have to get made that are terrible.

A lot of what American exceptionalism was all about and the strong US dollar were those responses to the last two crises. The United States did respond faster in 08 and 2020 than the rest of the world. What we have now is a bit of a different environment.

You have other central banks around the world that have already eased. And now you have a Federal Reserve that's going to be easing rates. We haven't seen this a long time. A gradual reduction in rates towards the rest of the world. It means weaker dollar. It doesn't mean a collapse in the dollar. It means for the first time in a while, we're in an environment where you open up opportunities for investors to do well outside of the United States.

The reason why I'm watching the inflation expectation so close. As soon as the three years started to break above two and a half percent and started rocketing above three, that's where you got a pretty significant sell off in markets. That's where the Fed was behind the curve.

In this instance right now again on Monday, we move from call two and a quarter to two, 40. That's a pretty big move. I would still categorize it as price stability.