2026 volatility outlook will 'rhyme' with last year. Predicts the exuberant retail call-buying mechanism (YOLO, FOMO) seen in AI will shift to unexpected industries like healthcare. Retail interest might move to 'shinier' things (crypto, prediction markets) rather than causing a market scare.

No, it will probably still be a relatively strong year for the market. The concern is if retail 'buy the dip' support is lost, it might shift to different expressions like zero-day options. Highlights 'shadow hedging complex': investors want to hedge but are reluctant due to whipsaw risk (like April 2nd), waiting for confirmed downside momentum.

Points to option skew (demand imbalance between puts and calls) flipping post-COVID due to retail preferring calls. This call-buying is starting to appear in unexpected industries. The reason is a 'show me' narrative for AI: people asking what industries (healthcare, industrials) will AI actually make more efficient.

Calls it a 'reluctant rally.' Portfolio managers have to participate to meet benchmark returns in a concentrated market, but that doesn't mean they are bullish. This is 'shadow hedging': many feel bearish but are afraid to hedge because of sharp sell-off/whiplash recovery risks (like April 2nd).

Yes. The Venezuela news immediately prompted client questions about the 'Taiwan tail.' This feels like a 'much fatter tail' this year; clients are explicitly asking how to express it. The Overton window of what's possible is larger.

Geopolitics have always been difficult for markets to price, especially short-term. The interesting thing about Venezuela was it immediately brought clients' minds back to AI and Taiwan, worrying about chips.

Adds another prediction: What has worked to hedge recently is typically gold, not as much VIX or S&P hedges, due to market dispersion.