Inflation has momentum; it was 5% under Biden, now in the high threes, and latest CPI surprised to the downside. Adjusted for a refinery shutdown, it's in the 0.2% range. The momentum is pretty directional.
Kevin Hassett
The policies we're pursuing right now are increasing supply. You should expect we can have growth like we're seeing without picking up Phillips Curve effects in inflation.
The President was calling on the Fed to lower rates. The Fed lowered by 25 bps last meeting. There's a wide expectation they might lower again in December. Do you have a view on whether it should be 25 or 50 bps, or what might be better for the economy?
David Rubenstein
Kevin Hassett
I have high regard for Jay Powell. At times he and I have had policy disagreements. An example: I agreed with the previous two meetings that it was the right time to cut rates.
Kevin Hassett
After the last meeting, two things happened: a longer-than-expected shutdown (negative for GDP) and a much better-than-expected inflation report. I think that news makes me more likely to move [to cut]. Somehow Jay decided the news made him less likely to move. That's an example of a policy disagreement I have.