The market isn't buying the need for rate cuts. Rising yields are fueled by concerns the Fed is cutting with inflation still too high, fiscal deficits, and rising global yields led by Japan.

It's a combination of domestic policy concerns and a big global component, as half of US Treasuries are held overseas. A soft dollar over the past year and rising yields in Japan/other markets show the bond market rejects easier policy.

Has long been in the camp for a steeper curve. Thinks 10-year yields are rangebound, testing ~4.25%. Short end pricing a couple more cuts is reasonable given labor market softness. A short-term correction is possible if Powell is hawkish, but longer-term steeper trend is in place.

Because we expect a weaker dollar, international bonds can make sense for diversification. Favors intermediate duration, high-quality credit, up-in-quality bias. Also mentions munis for attractive tax-equivalent yields and TIPS for inflation protection.