Questions if significant FOMC dissent against recent rate cuts indicates a much higher bar for near-term cuts and what the committee needs to see to support a January reduction.
Colby Smith
Jerome Powell
Acknowledges unusual, persistent tension between the Fed's dual mandate goals (inflation vs. labor market), leading to divergent views on risk weighting and forecasts within the FOMC.
Jerome Powell
Describes FOMC discussions as thoughtful and respectful, with broad (9/12) but not unanimous support for the current decision, reflecting the inherent complexity of the situation.
Jerome Powell
States the Fed is 'well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves,' implying no urgency for a January cut, as the effects of the 75 bps of cuts already delivered are only beginning.
Jerome Powell
Warns that upcoming household survey and CPI data may be 'distorted' due to technical collection issues from October/November, requiring a 'somewhat skeptical eye' for the January meeting.
Asks if the level of dissent could become counterproductive to Fed communication and policy messaging.
Colby Smith
Jerome Powell
Dismisses concern that dissents are counterproductive, framing them as a natural result of a 'close call' where a case can be made for either side of the policy debate.