Asks if silver's rally to $92 looks like panic buying.
Host
Guest 1
No panic buying; sees year-end value plays in beaten-down stocks like Intel and Moderna, with tax-loss selling and short covering as catalysts.
Asks David Zervos about copper, gold, and silver's rally despite unchanged fundamentals.
Host
David Zervos
Silver's move is a big momentum trade driven by hedge funds pressing winning positions; it's a favorite in the macro hedge fund community.
Guest 2
Adds that central bank buying has been steady since 2022, but now financial players dominate; it's a crowded, hot-money trade that could go any way.
David Zervos
Agrees it's hot money but could go longer; central banks are buying gold to diversify away from dollar reserves after seeing Russian assets conscripted.
Guest 1
Commodities are a hedge against dollar debasement and inflation; rally extends to copper, aluminum, steel; ETFs enable retail participation.
Asks how much of the move is due to currency, noting dollar index keeps failing at breakout, looks to go lower.
Host
Guest 1
Currency is a piece of the puzzle, part of macro/inflation hedging strategy.
Guest 2
Cites JP Morgan view: no rate cuts this year, possible hike in 2025; questions market/political fallout if Powell echoes this.
David Zervos
Totally disagrees with JP Morgan; labor market has weakened (unemployment up 1%), inflation down dramatically, expectations anchored; Fed should lean to labor side.