Introduces Warren Pies from 3Fourteen Research who downgraded his view on equities, asks if AI-exposed jobs performing worse is filtering into market's macro outlook assessment.
Tonya
Warren Pies
We're at a turning point. AI is starting to have an impact - first lowering hiring rates, now sporadic layoffs. This shows up in software equity prices and the rates market.
Asks what AI's impact means for economy and stocks - can GDP grow while jobs suffer, and how AI influences equity sector activity.
Tonya
Warren Pies
AI is a modest headwind to labor market, another headwind to inflation story. As long as defaults remain contained, this creates a not-bad macro backdrop with productivity increases.
Asks about credit risks given yields pushing lower and credit spreads widening, pointing to distress, and if containment is base case.
Speaker4
Warren Pies
Base case is containment. Spread blowout mostly contained to financials and tech. Software stocks were overvalued but corrected. Market showing signs of strength staying in range.