Unlikely to use as direct leverage. The risk is future investment as the US proves a less reliable partner. Uncertainty about tariffs and taxes may lead large investors to reduce unhedged US positions. European FDI projects might be put on hold.

Sends a message that NATO guarantees are practically worthless if the US needs to own an asset to defend it. Could create openings for Russia or China. May lead Europe to diversify energy imports away from the US, giving more leverage to regional partners like Qatar.

Wouldn't expect Syria to move markets soon; it was a very small producer. More important for regional stability. For oil, watching Iran, Venezuela supplies, and losses from Kazakhstan due to drone attacks. Syrian consolidation is a long-term play for regional stability, not an immediate oil market factor.