Once you start questioning Fed independence, credibility goes out the window. Market will start pricing in politics not policies - negative for risk assets.

Major risk for 2026 - Fed easing policy will collide with fiscal expansion policy. If inflation resurges, Fed may brush it under carpet as transitory. A cut will be cause for concern.

Expecting curve steepener. 10-year still higher than before Fed started cutting - shows term premium embedded. If inflation resurgence and Fed does nothing, 10-year could go to 4.5-4.6%.

Initially dollar resilient vs EM currencies due to stretched shorts, Fed unlikely to act next 1-2 meetings. But as year goes on, if inflation comes back and Fed independence questioned, politics plays larger role than policies - detrimental to dollar.

Challenge to predict oil from political angle. Fundamentally oversupplied market but has $3-4 geopolitical risk premium. If things go south geopolitically, another pressure embedded into inflation.