• Let's talk about it all. Dryden Pence See you! Bye! Oh! Pence Capital Management joining us now on set. Better to be here today. Don't unfride a, dried. Absolutely. Uh... Besides that social media post. Do we know what changed? Or maybe that was enough?
    speaker1
  • speaker2
    Well, I think that is probably enough, but I mean, the fact of the matter is... is that China, we are 2.3% of China's GDP. They're trade with us. We're, you know, we're, they're only about. 25% of ours. They need us more than we need them. and so you had this posting going back and forth. Everybody's the frazzled cat right now in the markets at time. So you get, you get, you know, any kind of noise. freaks everybody out, puts them upside down on the ceiling. So it was an overreaction to this and then Trump comes back on and it really states the fact that everybody knows. China needs us more than we need them. they're going to have to come to the table with something. They don't trade with us. They go into recession. And that's the last thing she wants. So I think that we're in a much stronger position. I think he stated that. I think everybody has stated that. This settled. Okay, fair enough.
  • But doesn't Friday's move indicate to you, Dryden, how jumpy this market? could be.
    speaker1
  • speaker2
    Oh, exactly. Like I said, the frousal cat, any kind, you're at a top. And everybody's worried about even the earnings or at an all-time high. So the market should be at an all-time high. and they're going forward, but still. when you see this I've been Doing this for a long time when you see these moments. any kind of news. tends to create overreaction, both to the positive and to the negative, either on stock by stock or whole index base. So we just have to kind of take everything with a big grain of salt. Okay.
  • earnings growth to your point. has been better than expected. But it's a new now earnings period. We're entering the fourth quarter, third quarter earnings. About to roll out, you can see from the giant beautiful wall we made behind you. There's all kinds of major companies coming out. That's this week. More next week. What does... Dryden Pence. I love referring to people in the third person. What do you want to see? from this earnings season. What would make you happy? as an investor.
    speaker1
  • speaker2
    I think we continue to see last time we're about 82% of the companies were beating. I think we're going to see that the same. Everybody lowered their earnings expectations after April and things like that. So everybody's beating a low bar. But I think we're going to continue to see this push through in earnings and it moves forward not only for this year but in the next year. So we've got about a 10 to 12% on an annualized basis increase in earnings. and if we see that then we're gonna see a market that's gonna be a double digital any any
  • specific places of this market they were.
    speaker1
  • speaker2
    watching more closely than others. I think you have to watch the AI space. It has gotten to the point where it is, in some cases, maybe priced a little over, but then you gotta look at the people that are going to be winning in this no matter what. The companies that are part of the infrastructure of AI going forward, you can... sometimes you get if it says AI you want to invest in, but people that are part of the infrastructure of AI going forward, those are the ones that are going to win during this period no matter what. We're in that infrastructure phase. What are we priced in perfection? Do we need every one of those companies that you just rightly said?
  • running the narrative. OK, and look at some of these rare earth companies we're going to talk about them a little bit later on because many of them are brand new. They have no sales. No revenue. No nothing. but they got multi-billion dollar valuations. What do you want to see from those companies? They have to be. is, doesn't video have to be. perfect.
    speaker1
  • speaker2
    then have to be perfect. Okay, because the demand signal is strong. But what it does have to do is be in a position that we can look at with predictability some long-term growth. continue to demand, continue delivery, all of those kind of things. And now, and you're seeing continued big deals made in this market, we just saw the Broadcom open out. Today, I think today. And so, and that's dramatic, because now people are beginning to pay attention to not only are we throwing a ton of money at it, but also what does it cost? What's the margin expansion? How are we lower cost on these things? How are we begin to make it more efficient across the scale? So we're trying to get some more discipline into this. And that's what I'm looking.
  • looking for that discipline as well because We saw Friday, I think if Friday taught us anything, then you can also, by the way, not just Friday. I think it was January 26th or 27th called that deep seek day when China said, what we've got to say, I think that... Does what your AI does. for a lot less power. markets. You're wobbled. came back quickly. Terraf Liberation Day, early April. Markets collapse 20%. but they came back. quickly. Friday. We're not gaining it all back today. But we're not... for off. It shows I think. How? That was it. You said Frasal Cat. I guess. this market. is. It's got to worry you a little bit. Now it...
    speaker1
  • speaker2
    Well, the point is, as I look at some of these things as opportunities, because if people are overreact, I mean, do you know any irrational people? And so if everybody I know is exactly. So sometimes, sometimes people take this irrational activity. They overreact. That gives people that can step back, be a little calm about it, focus purely on earnings and long-term stuff. Kind of step in at an opportunity moment because you can kind of... pick up some of these bargains here and I think that that's important. What about the banks? I know the...
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