Introduces topic: market reaction to speculation about Kevin Warsh potentially being nominated as Fed Chair.
Sam
Kevin Green
Warsh speculation is causing prediction markets to adjust. He is known as a hawk, previously advocated for inflation control, and is a proponent of reducing the Fed's balance sheet.
Notes the big breakdown in commodities/metals and asks about how markets are pricing in Warsh, highlighting his criticism of QE and desire for a smaller balance sheet.
Sam
Shifts to PPI data: headline came in hot at 0.5% month-on-month, asks if it feeds into CPI/PCE and what it means.
Sam
Kevin Green
PPI is volatile. The hot print was driven by services inflation (up 0.7%), specifically trading services margins, not goods inflation or commodities.
Moves to tech earnings, citing a 'triple whammy' for Apple (margins, memory, monetization) and softer Asian suppliers, asks for analysis.
Sam
Kevin Green
Apple earnings were decent with margin expansion, but market is skeptical due to uncertainty around chip supply costs impacting future margins.
Asks about the sharp selloff in metals (silver down ~12%, gold down ~5%).
Sam
Kevin Green
Metals are trading erratically with low liquidity (e.g., thin order book for silver futures), creating a volatile environment. Technicals show a bearish divergence, suggesting a potential reversal or pullback.