The Treasury move is a combination of factors, not one clear catalyst. Geopolitics is important. People are concerned risk sentiment is changing dramatically. The market is looking for direction, and the path of least resistance seems to be toward lower yields, especially with equity markets selling off.

Breaking through the 4% threshold will be difficult, but we blew through it today. Market skews show concern about a move lower in yields. The concern seems toward low yields, especially in a sticky inflation environment. If the Fed doesn't move in H1, any data weakness will manifest in the back end of the yield curve; the safe-haven bid will come into the back end.

Tariffs have multiple dimensions: inflation and debt/deficits. We are at peak uncertainty on tariffs. Volatility in tariff revenue could lead to higher term premiums and coupon issuance.

The inflation story has more to play out. In the first half, maybe three quarters, you'll see sticky inflation as the driving factor. PPI will feed into PCE, looking at slightly north of 3% core PCE, which is troubling. Specific sectors like healthcare and airfare are sticky. The economy is resilient with strong GDP growth.