Asks what's more likely for the ECB this year, a cut or a hike.
Lizzy Burden
Colm Pickering
Base case is for the ECB to hold, but they may be signaling readiness for a cut if Euro strength causes inflation to undershoot.
Asks when ECB undershooting becomes a problem and how much Euro appreciation would change the path.
Lizzy Burden
Colm Pickering
If inflation expectations fall below 1.5%, the ECB would move. Euro strength driven by export demand shouldn't be a problem, but if it causes undershooting, it is.
Asks about the BOE, given the UK economy is strengthening but losing jobs.
Lizzy Burden
Colm Pickering
The BOE should cut in April. Growth is below potential, and headline inflation is misleading; underlying dynamics are at target.
Asks if potential political changes (more pro-EU stance) would boost growth.
Lizzy Burden
Colm Pickering
The UK's problems are a chronic supply shortage and a lack of market confidence in sound money. No candidate is seriously addressing these.