The CPI data is encouraging and represents a continuation of disinflation, but headline was likely pushed down by a tenth due to technical data collection issues from the government shutdown. Will wait for cleaner data in the next month or two.

Labor report shows steady job gains and gradual cooling. Unemployment rate likely boosted by a tenth due to technical factors. No signs of sharp deterioration.

Data is broadly consistent with patterns and the prior decision to cut. Takes positive sign from lower inflation but nothing is a game-changer yet. Monetary policy is 'really well positioned' to gather more information.

Rejects the term 'pause'. Sees gradual movement of inflation back to 2%. Has no sense of urgency to act further now, as prior cuts have positioned them well. Goal is to stabilize the labor market and bring inflation down without undue harm.

Real interest rate is around 1-1.25%, in the range of neutral estimates. His personal view is neutral is a bit below 1%, so policy is still mildly restrictive. They have moved closer to neutral but are still a little bit above.

With inflation still around 2.75%, a modestly restrictive stance is helpful to get back to 2% on a sustained basis. It is not overly restrictive, just in the vicinity of neutral.

Sees GDP growth this year at 1.5-1.75%. Expects growth to pick up next year to around 2.25%, above trend, due to tailwinds from AI investment boom, strong financial conditions (stock market), and fiscal policy.

Absolutely. Sustained higher productivity boosts achievable growth without creating inflation and can be disinflationary by reducing business costs. It's a favorable tailwind for achieving their goals.

What's informing his view now is the already-observed strong productivity growth of ~2% in recent years. If the AI boom leads to sustained productivity growth, that would be the expected development, but he's not taking it for granted.

Will affect labor supply and demand. Sees strong demand in AI and data center sectors, but negative effects for jobs replaceable by technology. Does not see it causing structural unemployment, but will change skill demands and compensation.

Does not see AI as a systemic risk, though they monitor leverage and funding. Some investments will fail, others will pay off well. Agrees with Greenspan: focus on the actual economy to achieve goals, don't try to anticipate if the market is wrong about an investment boom.

Strongly disagrees. They are not doing QE (buying long-term securities to lower rates). They are buying T-Bills to supply reserves to meet banking system demand, keeping the funds rate in the target range.

Agrees. Eventually sees rates coming down lower as inflation falls to 2% and they move closer to neutral. They are in a good position and he wants to collect more information, especially cleaner data reads.