10 and 30 year yields are higher now than when Fed funds were over 5%, so for all this easing the long end isn't really responding at all

The credit markets are telling us something - sheer amount of debt taken on by technology companies through special purpose vehicles and synthetic risk transfers

We're potentially walking into a private credit problem because it's so opaque with no active bid/offer

Credit default swap markets showing stress - Oracle CDS blown out from 40 to 115-120

I don't think there's much fear in the market at all - VIX at 19 used to be normal, high yield spreads near record tight levels

I don't know why they're bringing rates down - there's a lot of political pressure