We're starting to see a rotation and broadening out from tech/AI into other areas like materials, staples, and industrials. This is a healthy redistribution in year four of a bull market where leadership needs to change for extension.

This is a natural evolution in how investors take risk, driven by higher valuations, less predictable policy environment, and a preference for companies that don't need perfect market conditions.

At this stage of the bull market cycle, valuations matter more. Uncertainty gets amplified in expensive parts of the market, and uncertainty is everywhere (geopolitics: Venezuela, Iran, Greenland).

One bigger change this year is rates. Markets care more about direction on rates than politics. Lower rates will help housing, dividend-paying stocks, and value/capital-intensive businesses.

Positive factors for housing: rates are 100 basis points off peak, possible policy shifts this year. This leads to Home Depot as the pick - a Dow-30 stock with ~2.5% yield and double-digit dividend growth.