Raises risks due to uncertainty. Equities are expensive globally, leaving them vulnerable to a correction, but not a systemic bear market.
Asks how long elevated oil prices need to last to impact capex and margins.
Francine Lacqua
Peter Oppenheimer
Current oil move implies modest global inflation (+0.2) and growth impact (-0.1). A move to $100+ prolonged would mean inflation +0.7, growth contraction -0.4.
Asks about impact of Strait of Hormuz closure on inflation and shipping.
Francine Lacqua
Peter Oppenheimer
Closure affects both inflation expectations and shipping costs. 20% of supplies through the channel creates significant uncertainty and higher costs.
Peter Oppenheimer
Does not expect a prolonged or deep bear market. Underlying global growth is robust, earnings are strong, and private sector balance sheets are healthy.
Asks about private credit risks and read-across to equities.
Francine Lacqua
Peter Oppenheimer
Risks in private credit (e.g., software loans) could see a correction, but not systemic due to less leverage than pre-financial crisis.