PAYROLL REPORTS ARE A GREAT ECONOMIC INDICATOR, CPI REPORT. MARKETS HAVE BECOME HAMSTRUNG. I FEEL PRETTY GOOD ABOUT THE STRUCTURAL DIRECTION OF THE ECONOMY. THERE IS A SOFTENING OF THE LABOR MARKET. WE HAVE REDUCED INTEREST RATE SENSITIVITY AND PULLED SOME FROM THE FRONT END OF THE YIELD CURVE. FOCUSING ON CARRY AND LOWER DURATION. INVESTMENT GRADE CREDIT SPREADS DON'T OFFER MUCH. AGENCY MORTGAGES BECOME MORE INTERESTING WITH LOWER RATES. THE FED WILL INTERPRET DATA AS INFLATION STICKY HIGH, EMPLOYMENT MODERATING. WE'RE IN A WAIT-AND-SEE MODE ALONG WITH ECB, BOE, RBA. I THINK THE FUNDS RATE COULD MOVE TO 3% FROM BREAK EVEN 2.35% AND MAYBE MOVE LOWER. THE PRICE MARKETS CAN GET IT THERE.

I DO NOT THINK THERE IS AN AI BUBBLE OR TOO MUCH FROTH IN LARGE CAPS WITH STRONG FREE CASH FLOW. THERE IS SOME FROTH IN PRIVATE MARKETS. THE FREE CASH FLOW ALLOWS DEVELOPING FUTURE CASH FLOW AND BUYBACKS.