• Luke Gromen
    The 'treadmill problem': T-bill gross issuance has exploded from $100B/week in 2013 to $550B/week now, driven by high deficits and a policy shift to front-end issuance because the US cannot term out its debt without sending 10-year Treasury yields to 4.6-4.8%, which would trigger equity volatility.
  • Luke Gromen
    Higher T-bill issuance mechanically raises the Treasury General Account (TGA), which crowds out overnight funding (repo) rates, threatening the funding for hedge funds engaged in the basis trade (who own $1.8T in Treasuries).
  • Luke Gromen
    The Fed's Standing Repo Facility acts as a form of front-end yield curve control, mitigating repo stress and effectively funding deficits, which is stimulative.
  • Luke Gromen
    The withholding of economic data is a 'Banana Republic' action and a 'buy gold and buy Bitcoin advertisement.'
  • Luke Gromen
    Advice for retirees: Allocate 1-2% to Bitcoin (self-custody) and the rest of a 20% alternative allocation to physical gold. It's critical to own physical gold as fiscal dominance is 'not deflationary over time' and long-term bonds will destroy purchasing power.
  • Luke Gromen
    For public market exposure to reshoring/electrification, consider ETFs: PAVE, GRID, and VOLT.
  • Luke Gromen
    Brazil's central bank buying significant gold is an important clue. Gold is the de facto BRICS currency, not a basket.
  • Luke Gromen
    The US printing treasuries to buy commodities means other nations cannot store wealth in treasuries anymore; they must go to gold. Gold just surpassed treasuries in global FX reserves.
  • Luke Gromen
    I think gold is going to be bigger than the dollar in global FX reserves within 2 to 3 years.
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