What impact does China's Treasury guidance have in the short term?
Bell
Monica Shao
Short-term spike in yields reversed quickly. The move is likely a negotiation tactic ahead of April meetings and a signal to consider non-USD safe havens like gold.
Why watch JGBs closely?
Bell
Monica Shao
JGBs are a top thematic for tail-risk and contagion. Spikes correlate with risk-off moves across assets, including credit spreads and Bitcoin.
What's your outlook for Treasuries given Kevin Warsh?
David
Monica Shao
Uncertainty remains. Warsh is a political animal; his hawkish balance sheet talk would take time. The bigger issue is potential Fed-Treasury coordination threatening independence.
Why aren't credit spreads widening with all the AI supply?
Bell
Monica Shao
Issuers like Alphabet have strong balance sheets (net cash) and bargaining power. AI-related debt is still single-digit in indices, so there's room for real money to absorb it.