Oil had one of its worst years, down about 20%, with record US output and high global inventories, but facing geopolitical risks from Russia, Venezuela, and Nigeria.
Brian Sullivan
Helima Croft
The key question is whether we'll be seriously oversupplied in 2025, similar to 2024 when OPEC's production increase surprised markets amid high US, Guyana, and Brazil output.
Brazil is a hidden story for 2025 oil, now over 4 million barrels/day, with Guyana also increasing production significantly.
Brian Sullivan
Asks whether military action or Maduro leaving Venezuela would be bullish or bearish for oil, or some combination depending on timeframe.
Brian Sullivan
Helima Croft
Venezuela's recovery would require $10B/year investment and stable security, with near-term risk to already reduced supplies due to tanker attacks and US embargo.
Helima Croft
Recent price softness reflects anticipation of Trump deal bringing back Russian volumes, but Putin unlikely to make significant territorial concessions on Ukraine.
Thinks oil is going higher next year, but asks what downside price puts domestic producers in a bind.
Brian Sullivan
Helima Croft
Current prices in low $50s for WTI are suboptimal and don't work for producers, questioning how many have hedged and whether elevated production can continue without more robust prices.