25 years ago, we projected a multi-decade renaissance in gold/silver investment demand due to a worsening economic/political environment. That thesis has played out, with prices far exceeding initial targets. Our analysis, both short and long-term, says this is not the peak.

The price increase stems from stronger investment demand across short, medium, and long-term horizons. Drivers include deglobalization, recession fears, inflation uptick, excessive sovereign/private debt, and political tensions (Middle East, Ukraine, Taiwan, US isolationism). The Fed's shift to cutting rates is bullish for metals but signals serious economic concern.

Factors negative for metals: higher interest rates, reduced fiscal deficits/global debt, stronger economic activity, reversal of deglobalization, reduced political strife, or settlement of Ukraine war. Most seem low probability. A recession could lower demand, but history (2001-2011) shows metals can rise through and after recessions.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a cyclical peak, but my thinking is it might be 2027 or 2028. The longer-term secular bull market doesn't see an end in the next 10 years at least.

A stronger economic environment leading to higher interest rates and lower inflation expectations. Investment demand responds more to inflation expectations than actual inflation. Even with lower inflation, price levels will remain high.

Yes. The late 1990s saw an economic boom, US surpluses, and debt paydown, which strengthened the dollar and pushed gold from $340 to $270. A similar fiscal improvement now could pressure metals, but markets would need proof it's sustainable beyond one administration, unlike the false start of the late 1990s.

Both. Similarities exist, but precious metals markets are radically different—more sophisticated financial instruments exist. However, gold/silver retain strength as physical assets outside the financial system. Current AI stock/crypto boom resembles past bubbles (internet stocks, CMOs), with similar potential negative outcomes.

Have a portion of wealth in gold and silver, likely more in gold. Own physical metal, some in possession, some in trusted depositories. We advise clients to stay long, expecting prices to rise further for at least a couple more years cyclically. Use hedges (options/futures) to protect against short-term cyclical declines while maintaining long physical exposure.

Mining equity investors can hedge using metals options. Calculate portfolio beta to gold/silver and hedge accordingly. Trading companies using borrowed money are often required to hedge. Individual investors can choose hedge ratios (10%, 20%, 50%) based on risk profile.

We're in a period with the highest political and economic risks since December 1941. In that environment, everyone should have a good portion of wealth in gold and silver.