The 'sell America' theory doesn't hold much water; the U.S. remains the prime destination for capital. Global portfolio reallocation away from the U.S. has begun but is moving slowly.

Options on every asset class are extraordinarily inexpensive. The key is hedging, not selling. The underlying market subtext for three years has been that AI will drive equities higher.

Would bump up the potential for U.S. taking control of Greenland. Also, the surge in Japanese yields complicates the Greenland situation and points to a potential for the U.S. 10-year yield to trade above 5% in 2026.

On a down day, you'd prefer fixed income to act as a shock absorber, not a shock accelerator. Japan changed that narrative. If the 10-year gets to 4.5%, it might cause the Trump administration to rethink its approach, similar to last year with tariffs.

The debt problem is much larger but won't be a problem until it is. It creates incremental geopolitical instability but is not seen as a discrete problem in the medium term.

Their survey showed 75% think the next 10% move in the S&P is higher. At these elevated valuations in the fourth year of a bull market, 'imperfect news' will cause more volatility.

Spending from hyperscalers is very sustainable relative to free cash flow. The deal pipeline suggests it's not an issue. The mood has soured in tech/AI over the last six weeks, setting a lower bar for tech companies.

Something like that is possible, but points to an idiosyncratic credit event in December where CDS surged but the broader credit space was unaffected. The Nasdaq result is often just a sideways churn, which he thinks is where we are, resolving higher ultimately.

This morning is a stark reminder. The over-enthusiasm was exactly that. Fundamentals support growth (high single/low double-digit earnings, stimulus, raised GDP forecast), but it doesn't happen in a straight line.

Days like today don't concern us discreetly; it's a logical reaction to an unprecedented change in geopolitical configuration. It would be more concerning if the market just laughed it off, leading to ultimate FOMO.

The interest rate market has been very calm, creeping up in the last week or two. You're likely to have further upside episodically; we need to see the next round of data accompanying news from Japan and Davos.

You've seen that in the first couple of weeks. The problem is everything still needs to be led by technology/AI given its weight in the index. The first reaction in small caps and cyclicals is that the geopolitical narrative is a bigger threat to the growth trajectory than a technological headwind.