Hearing quite a bit of concern in Davos. Disagrees with the Danish fund; thinks U.S. credit is good and fundamentals are strong. What we are feeling is more of a sense of risk-off.

The word for the day is diversification. Started in 2025. Being thoughtful with risk management and security selection is key, especially for active managers in fixed income.

U.S. credit fundamentals are pretty good. We have the 'one big beautiful bill' benefiting the economy in H1 2026, a relatively thoughtful Fed with more cuts likely, and disinflation. Fundamentals for H1 2026 are still supportive of credit and equities, but not without volatility and noise.

When you're late cycle, nervousness prevails. Geopolitical headlines accelerate that nervousness, making investors wary and protective of gains.

2025 was the first year of Trump, focused on domestic policies. Now we're broadening to include geopolitics, which is unsettling for global markets. Not a replay of 2025. Fundamentals support a reasonable market year with volatility.

As sovereign investors moved away from U.S. Treasuries in 2025, they put money into precious metals like gold. That will continue as investors look for alternative places to recycle dollars and find stability. Gold should benefit from this level of uncertainty.

Her challenge is risk mitigation. Tail risk is high in the back half of 2027. Doesn't have a contrarian positive bet, will keep silver trade on, but focus is protecting portfolios against adversity.

Tailwinds are strong for H1 2026, but risk they evaporate in H2. Being an election year, politicians will want to keep stimulus going, so tailwinds may extend. Base case is no recession. A market sentiment-driven selloff is quite possible, but historically since the financial crisis, those selloffs don't last long and re-acceleration emerges rapidly.