• Introduces Kevin Hincks and sets up discussion on NVIDIA earnings as a potential market determinant for AI/CapEx sentiment.
    Nicole
  • Kevin Hincks
    Argues that all the CapEx spending from major tech companies (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) ultimately flows to NVIDIA, with AMD and Broadcom also playing roles.
  • Kevin Hincks
    Provides NVIDIA earnings expectations: ~$1.52 EPS (70% YoY increase) and ~$65.7B revenue (65% YoY gain).
  • Kevin Hincks
    States that Taiwan Semi, Micron, memory stocks, and mega-cap tech will all be affected by NVIDIA's earnings.
  • Observes that Asian tech stocks (SK Hynix, Taiwan Semi, Samsung) are up today, indicating the tech trade is on.
    Nicole
  • Asks for thoughts on the State of the Union address and its potential market impact.
    Nicole
  • Kevin Hincks
    Frames the key economic question as: how to slow the economy and bring down inflation without causing a recession.
  • Kevin Hincks
    Explains that bringing down inflation means slowing price growth, not causing price crashes, which would be a red flag.
  • Kevin Hincks
    Highlights a major policy move: Fannie and Freddie directed to buy mortgage-backed securities, injecting ~$200B+ to lower mortgage rates.
  • Kevin Hincks
    Notes 30-year mortgage rates have fallen from ~7% to just under 6%, with official rate at 6.09% this week.
  • Kevin Hincks
    Suggests the true test of lower mortgage rates on housing affordability will come in spring when seasonal factors ease.
  • Concludes that lower mortgage rates stimulate the housing market, making purchases more likely at 6% than 7%.
    Nicole
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