It is hard to fade the story of big tech capex, but we are seeing a rotation that is a healthy rationalization of where to put money.

The dollar is weaker than expected given growth, and long yields are higher than expected during a cutting cycle. The 10-year yield widening into this cutting cycle is unique.

Regime change takes time. We're watching for catalysts. For now, you have to give the Fed and financial system the benefit of the doubt that you can't avoid these asset classes.

On a Kevin Warsh-led Fed: It's still a duration-neutral and potentially steeper curve discussion. A Fed-Treasury accord with less Fed buying at the long end means higher yields.

I've had a 10s-30s spread target around 120 basis points for some time. Historically that's not overly steep. We need to think about cycles before the GFC when the curve was more naturally steep.

It's driven by a bit of both—a bear steepener or bear twist.

Treasuries are an incredibly interesting asset class. Nobody is incentivized to sell aggressively; it's when they buy less. We're starting to see conversations about less foreign interest because there are 100-year bonds to buy elsewhere.

It really does make it difficult if you're playing a trade expecting duration to outperform because the Fed is cutting. We haven't had it and I wouldn't expect it.

Yes, we always have concern about Fed independence. The market will quickly punish absolutely bad policy.