This is jobless growth driven by capex and government spending on the supply side. It's not an economy that requires significant job growth.

The breakeven employment number is about 40,000 jobs per month. Anything above that reduces the unemployment rate.

AI might not create many jobs; it could save us from the labor shortage. We'll have an awkward implementation phase.

Get used to three-ish inflation. That's here to stay. We're about to hit the five-year anniversary of inflation above 2%.

The challenge is what the Fed does if you see a small creep up in the unemployment rate from 4.3% to 4.5%, which is still a tight labor market. This Fed will say 'we don't like the direction' and has a dovish bias.