Asks if recent data bolsters Kaplan's view that Fed cuts this year might be suspect, and whether there will be any cuts.
Joe
Robert Kaplan
Thinks the Fed probably will cut rates this year, but needs to see more improvement in inflation first; believes improvement will happen during the year.
Asks if the labor market concern that justified last year's cuts has resolved, noting some think we're past a labor slowdown.
Joe
Robert Kaplan
Forecasts significant firming in GDP growth (2.75%) this year due to tax incentives, AI infrastructure boom; thinks labor market more likely to firm than slow cyclically.
Notes Fed critics argue inflation has been above 2% for five years yet cuts happened, suggesting goalposts moved.
Joe
Robert Kaplan
Points to two big disinflationary forces: global manufacturing overcapacity (driven by China) and AI productivity improvements.
Asks how Fed chair nomination politics might play out and if it will be resolved soon.
Joe
Robert Kaplan
Expects the nomination issue to be resolved, but the imprint will be a higher bar for the new chair to demonstrate political independence on Fed funds rate decisions.
Asks if Kevin Hassett could get confirmed given skepticism about nominees' promises.
Joe
Robert Kaplan
Declines to comment on individuals but says any candidate has opportunity, with higher bar to demonstrate they'll make decisions without political pressure.