There's a lot of complacency in the market. We look at the broad range of outcomes, and one negative outcome would be inflation. I call that the skunk at the party.

Right now this [Middle East conflict] will add a little bit, a teeny bit to inflation, not a lot.

Geopolitics is much more complex today than it has been since WWII... this war with Iran, if it's short and goes to 80 or 90 or 100 [oil price], but it's a short time not prolonged, it probably wouldn't have a major effect.