• BNP Paribas reported a beat on Q4 profit, raised mid-term targets, and disclosed new cost-saving plans of €600M. What's driving the confidence for the second guidance upgrade in months?
    Host
  • Lars Machenil
    Strong growth delivery: bottom line profit grew 28%, a record Q4. The pivot in our networks division is translating from higher rates and is here to stay. Asset management insurance is pivoting in scale with AXA AM acquisition, top line up 40%. Reviewing end-to-end functions will further upgrade service and optimize costs.
  • How much of the new cost savings will be driven by employing new AI technologies?
    Host
  • Lars Machenil
    We have been bolting on machine learning, a driver of positive jaws. We will step it up with generative AI to optimize end-to-end processes. Today, main AI impacts are in revenue; the process review will also impact cost and cost of risk in underwriting.
  • How many jobs at BNP can be done by AI? Do you agree white-collar jobs will disappear?
    Host
  • Lars Machenil
    The overall setup will be modified end-to-end. We will use natural attrition to reach optimized staffing levels. Jobs will be redeployed in other activities as AI generates totally new activities, similar to what the internet did.
  • Is the volatility in silver, gold, rates, and equity markets a benefit or worry for BNP?
    Host
  • Lars Machenil
    Look at two axes. For corporates and institutions in Europe, growth is there, inflation and rates are where they should be, Europe is investing. For a diversified bank like us, this is fine. For trading activity, uncertainty triggers demand as people hedge. We see very positive demand from clients.
  • So the trading business is set up well with this volatility in the quarters ahead?
    Host
  • Lars Machenil
    With the demand we have, uncertainty drives demand. If there's too little, there's nothing; if too high intraday, nobody dares to move. The volatility we see today is in that right middle, so from that point of view, it is positive.
  • French PMI below 50, CPI way below target, consumer confidence low, fiscal drag coming. If you could call Christine Lagarde, would you say France needs lower rates?
    Host
  • Lars Machenil
    Look at the derivatives. The pivot is there. Should there be a lower interest rate environment? The logical number is what you see; there's a trade-off. Is the pickup strong enough or not, or will it be a support? We'll see this afternoon, but it's not unlikely this would hint at a slightly lower rate environment.
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