We've been neutral on EUR/USD due to its big move. For the broad dollar, we've been bearish. The broad dollar is weakening, you're seeing more rotation. We're keeping that view.

The real effective dollar is still very expensive and moves in big cycles. Even without Trump, it was at levels where you'd expect a bear market. The Trump administration is adding to that as people think about diversifying. I'd be very surprised if the USD is not weaker in five years' time.

European investors are derisking. In Asia, we're yet to see that dynamic; Asia is doubling down on US exposure. To see another big wave of dollar down, you need Asian investor behavior to change. That's what we're monitoring this year.

It's a period where people focus on the negative. The global economy has been more resilient than thought and is speeding up. I think the economy will be fine near-term. You're building imbalances. Normally a US recession is driven by a bust in business investment. We're having a very big AI investment boom. If it goes for another couple years, at some point the market will probably say 'enough' and that will be the downturn, but I don't think it's this year.

It's likely to continue because uncertainty is so high. The most important dynamic is that for the first time in a while, risks and high volatility are stemming from the US, not the rest of the world. This changes the dollar's safe-haven role and reduces the incentive to hold equities unhedged.

If you get the really fast disruptive AI story, it would be disinflationary. For the Fed, my view is they're not going to do anything for the next 6-12 months. They're in a good place.

It's hard because there's so much churn. Big companies shedding 20,000 jobs is terrible, but in the scheme of the US labor market it's not very big. Something is happening at a macro level, but it's not clear yet. If productivity comes through, most theory would say that's high on the neutral rate rather than low.

It's on the list of things that could go wrong. Systemic? I don't think so. The problem is we don't have enough information. It doesn't look big enough. It's not in my top five things to worry about this year.

In the long term, it's definitely something to worry about and think about. It's one of the most interesting questions in my career. It's very important to not just focus on the technology, but the political economy: how it transforms the distribution of wealth and the unemployment rate.