I have to say it then, maybe we'll trust it. We've got a sort of a tortoise like economy and we've got this sparkles and champagne stock market. I mean, it's a down this week. uh... the stock market has been having a very good year but you know we have i think this government shut down is affecting sentiment that's affecting consumers affecting businesses and you know People are scared of the dark and we are in the dark on a lack of... economic data and so I think people are assuming some of the worst. here. and the economy is not in recession right now, but it is slowing down. and the longer this shot down goes on the worse the damage.

I agree with that in terms of... You see the unemployment rate. But what's going on in the back drop here is we're seeing a decline in the number of available workers. We've seen a full in labor force participation. We've seen a huge turnaround immigration. And if you look at that national federation of independent business survey there, One of the biggest things that jumped out of me at that, from that was... out. Businesses cannot find the quality of workers they need. They're having a very hard time finding workers at all, but they really can't find the workers. with his skills they need to do the job. So it's a low. demand low supply labor market, it's indicative of an economy that's just, you know, the battery just running down here.

No, I think the labor market is getting solved, right? I think one of the things that a lot of these surveys look at the private sector, and of course we know. that about 150,000 federal workers took the buyage. and will be leaving the labor market will be leaving government employment officially between the end of September and the end of December. A lot of those would have shown up. in the report that's supposed to come out today. but the government sector employment is falling. And then I think there's a lot of knock on a thick from government cutbacks affecting the economy's it Part of the economy is very strong, spending by upper income individuals is fine because of the stock market. And the AI boom is really a boom, but the rest of the economy. is pretty soft and getting softer.

Yeah, I think there will be a not so much because a shutdown ends, but as soon as you get into early next year, we're going to have a bump for a season of income tax refunds. We expect the average income tax refund next year is going to be over $4,000. That's up from 32 hundred dollars. Last year's soap. I, you know, we need the shutdown to end, but there is hope on the rise. once we get into early 26.

I think we are a little bit. I mean, the economy cannot live off. appreciate you to learn or or all the co-protect sprays alone. We are we're gonna get this we're gonna get a sugar rush from these income tax refunds, 60% of them are likely to be paid up by the end of March, and that will help the consumer spending. Bye-bye, June! you know that the sugar high will come off and then i think we're still looking at the effects of the economy of more economic nationalism still high tariffs perhaps we'll see that one Please add. still very different immigration. environment. So I think the economy is going to it's cooling down right now. It's going to heat up and then it's going to cool down again the second half of next year.

I think the third will cut into December is about a 70% chance of that baked into the future's market right now and I know they say that the lack of data is going to cause them to hesitate or palse that but I don't think so. I think they'll cousin December. and I think they will cause One or two times more next year, but the problems the American economy facing are not one's better reserve can face and it can fix. I think the Fed knows that.

And we'll leave. Yeah, I mean, who's paying the tariffs at the moment is American retail is an importer, who's both the, you know, they've been paying the tariffs since they take it out of warehouses. They haven't really been passing it on to consumers. a great deal so far. But I think they will early next year. Once those income tax refunds come to, I think you'll see more inflation. Again, it is temporary. In the long run, I don't think the US economy is that threatened by inflation. But I think it is threatened by... um, inefficiencies by economic nationalism by low labor supply. I mean the AI boom can only get you so far. We really need a lot of other things to work for American business for this type of the abuming economy.