I do think both sides try to deescalate the situation over the weekend. So I do think there will be some calm prevailing and that's why you've seen the rebound. Our view absolutely remains that both sides are actually looking to keep tariffs at current levels, which is about 53%, rather than escalate all the way to 100%. That's kind of where the market sentiment is as well. But I do think overall macro sentiment has deteriorated. We've seen a flight away from safe haven assets; we've seen gold and silver rally. So the macro backdrop isn't particularly conducive for risk appetite. However, I do feel that the big, big reaction we saw on Friday—some of the worst news is probably not going to occur anymore—and that's why the market's reacted the way it is.

Chinese stockpiling has been one of the most important features of the oil market this year because a lot of traders and analysts have come into this year expecting big stock builds. Stocks have built in line with seasonal averages, and 90% of that has actually gone into Chinese tanks. That's why the physical market has remained very tight. If you look at Cushing stocks, they are very low, near record lows, and all other pricing centers are tight as well. The stockpiling isn't just about oil; they're stockpiling pretty much every commodity. This is a much bigger issue about de-dollarization and the potential devaluation of the yuan if the trade war were to accelerate, which would make imports more expensive. So the objective for the stockpiling is much wider than the oil market itself.

I think it's the latter. As long as there is some form of resolution, tariffs are already in place. The global economy has held up okay. Oil demand growth is under a million barrels per day, about 800 to 900 thousand barrels per day, which is fine. If things were to get worse, then concerns about demand growth would creep in. At the peak around April/May, we were discussing potentially half a million barrels per day of demand growth or less. Those concerns drove the knee-jerk reaction on Friday, but at least some of those worst fears have now subsided.