Asks how Christian Nolting is feeling about 2026 and why markets are doing okay despite geopolitical drama.
Joumanna Bercetche
Christian Nolting
Markets are doing okay because earnings are expected to be okay and the macro backdrop is very positive, with a lot of fiscal spending happening in the US, China, and Europe.
Asks if conditions are still in place for positive growth this year.
Joumanna Bercetche
Christian Nolting
Yes, fiscal spending is helping, and the question for 2027/28 is whether this is invested into productivity growth.
Notes that fiscal spending impact depends on the country and its fiscal space, citing France being punished vs. the US being rewarded.
Joumanna Bercetche
Christian Nolting
The key is how much fiscal spending can be transformed into long-term growth. The US is probably better at this due to its economic structure and higher potential growth rate than France or Germany.
Asks if, given US leadership in AI capex, clients think the best opportunity is still in the US or if they are looking to spread investments due to high valuations.
Joumanna Bercetche
Christian Nolting
It's not about regional spreading. It's important to look at the whole AI value chain (chips, data centers, next steps), not just the US. Focusing only on chips could lead to high valuations.
Asks how he screens for opportunities in the AI space.
Joumanna Bercetche
Christian Nolting
Looks at where investment is shifting, like to data centers, and which companies could profit, including utility companies in Europe that provide power and cooling.
Asks if the European investment theme of defense and infrastructure from last year will change.
Joumanna Bercetche
Christian Nolting
Not necessarily, there is more defense spending to come, especially in Germany, depending on the situation in Ukraine.
Asks about cyclical performance in Europe given tepid growth but extra German fiscal spending.
Joumanna Bercetche
Christian Nolting
Investors want to see Germany growing. Forecasts 1.1-1.3% growth for Germany, powered by fiscal spending. If growth materializes, there could be more investment into cyclicals.