Asks for base case scenario on whether the Iranian regime falls or Venezuela-type scenario emerges.
Vonnie Quinn
Anna Rosenberg
Regime change not realistic at this point. Conflict will continue as long as Iranian missiles hit the region, then may shift to street protests. Key signposts: whether people protest and if military defects.
Notes the person running Iran's response was responsible for earlier crackdowns, questions if protesters will feel safe.
Vonnie Quinn
Anna Rosenberg
External opposition figure Reza Pahlavi may call for protests again. We'll have to see the security situation.
Asks how different outcomes (different leader vs. revolution) would impact the US.
Vonnie Quinn
Anna Rosenberg
Don't underestimate potential for real regime change; regime has been consistently weakening. US wants a regime that stops nuclear enrichment and funding proxies; Israel wants regime gone ideologically.
Asks how much smart money is thinking about longer-term consequences of a protracted, messy battle.
Vonnie Quinn
Anna Rosenberg
Market is watching duration, focusing on safe haven assets like gold. Questions how bad it gets: could affect migration flows, regional stability, Turkey, Europe, oil and gas flows for longer period if protracted civil war.
Asks if China, cornered, would side with Iran.
Vonnie Quinn
Anna Rosenberg
China will try to stay out; most important is economic stability and trade. Tail risk: if US is bogged down, China might see opportunity regarding Taiwan.