• Let's dig into the macro backdrop here with Jeff Sherman Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Double Line Capital joining us from California. Jeff, fantastic to see you. You heard what Jamie Diamond said, and like the Federal Reserve, the bond market is pretty much divided between worrying over a slowdown in the labor market dragging the economy south versus fear of inflation due to tariffs re-igniting at some point. What's your view?
    Scarlet Fu
  • Jeff Sherman
    Yeah, I mean, we're sitting at the crossroads here too... With the Fed last meeting giving the risk management cut, it seems that they're gonna try to go that direction one more time, but I think they want to be sensitive to incoming data and really focus on the labor market. So I think it's probably a done deal for another cut. The market has two more cuts at subsequent meetings this year. But maybe that December cut doesn't come through as much depending on data. So, here we are once again, data dependent, but with not much government data available.
  • Jeff Sherman
    When I look at the debasement trade, the 30-year bonds across the developed world show investors reject stepping in despite perception of a Fed cutting cycle. Policies are not dollar-friendly, which will put inflation in the US. The dollar has been overvalued nearly a decade. Probably time for stability and to bring the dollar down.
  • Okay, well that lack of visibility is showing up in how investors are positioning themselves. There's the debasement trade, the stampede into gold, silver, Bitcoin. To what extent do you see the global bond market supporting that debasement trade? For example, the 5-year breakeven rate in the US remains close to the Fed's 2% target.
    Scarlet Fu
  • Jeff Sherman
    There's been an eerie stability and confidence in the 2% breakeven inflation target. Our portfolios buy short-duration TIPS because of option value. The debasement trade has momentum, especially metals like silver entering discussion recently. Many investors feel the US dollar strength has been overdone, and a decline can be expected.
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