Introducing the topic: incredible volatility in precious metals, with silver up $10 and gold up $150 in five trading days, now pulling back slightly.

In 2000, CPM Group identified a sea change: a permanent upward shift in investment demand for gold (and silver), marking the start of a 'gold renaissance' where investors globally would buy more gold at higher prices for decades, not just cyclically.

The gold renaissance, now 25 years old, shows no signs of ending. It's an ongoing global transition, not a temporary reaction to hostile conditions.

Short-term view: Gold consolidation since mid-October is likely ending. Price pulled back from over $4300 towards $4200-$4150 as anticipated. At that point, it will be time to go long again.

Long-term gold price chart shows rising trend since 2019, and expectation is these trends remain in place.

Silver's $10 rise was driven by investor buying and futures roll, not physical shortage narratives. Price could pull back to $52-$55, but the period of consolidation is over and upward momentum is seen.

Platinum and palladium have been stronger than expected but are expected to see some subsidence, especially after Q1 2026, due to potential weaker auto demand.

Macro backdrop: Hostile economic/political environment stimulates investor interest. Expectation of Fed cutting 25bps next week due to concerns about economic stability, rising unemployment, and persistent inflation.

Outlook: Stronger precious metals prices expected in first 3-4 months of next year, then coming off later. Long-term renaissance continues as economic/political/financial stability concerns fray globally, sustaining high investment demand.