Asking for latest assessment on how quickly the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.
Kelly Evans
Helima Croft
No indication of movement on reopening the strait; no plans to back up announcements of naval escorts or insurance; no significant movement expected next week, leading to prospects of cascading production shut-ins.
Asking for handicap on timeline for reopening - hours, days, or weeks?
Kelly Evans
Paul Sankey
If not open by Friday, there's a major problem; every day that passes makes it worse; no sign of ending soon; 20 million barrels daily through the strait creates daily crisis.
Addressing those who point to forward months showing oil back at $68 by year-end - what's the problem?
Kelly Evans
Paul Sankey
Prices will go as high as needed until demand gets crushed; $250/barrel jet fuel would reduce flying; high prices cure high prices through demand destruction.
Gas prices up almost 50 cents/month to $3.32, approaching $4 psychological pain point.
Kelly Evans
Helima Croft
White House faces economic vs. political trade-off; Iran has asymmetric capabilities (drones, fast boats with explosives) to prolong closure; no de-escalation indications from either side.
Is reopening timeline up to US president or Iranians?
Kelly Evans
Helima Croft
Iranians absolutely have a say; conflict focus was wrong on missile stockpiles vs. drone capabilities; remaining fast boats with explosives can target tankers.