Interprets president's comments as signaling potential stop to bombing, but notes Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Market reaction (Tokyo open high, sell-off) reflects uncertainty. This is a structural change - first-ever blockage shows vulnerability.

Adversaries know Trump's weak spot (gas prices before midterms). US less affected as oil exporter, but Taiwan faces energy crisis affecting chip production. Strait must reopen.

Oil should have higher floor (~$60) due to global risk premium. Must pay more for tankers and insurance. Middle East growth now higher cost of capital.

Structurally already broken - insurance costs up, Middle East attractiveness down. Cannot replace barrels to Taiwan/South Korea quickly (6 weeks). 10M barrels/day lost has major negative effect.